{"id":360,"date":"2018-02-05T15:02:27","date_gmt":"2018-02-05T15:02:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/?p=360"},"modified":"2018-02-05T15:16:20","modified_gmt":"2018-02-05T15:16:20","slug":"pain-and-anguish-while-creating-an-automated-tool-that-recommends-travel-forecasting-methods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2018\/02\/05\/pain-and-anguish-while-creating-an-automated-tool-that-recommends-travel-forecasting-methods\/","title":{"rendered":"Pain and Anguish while Creating an Automated Tool that Recommends Travel Forecasting Methods"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

I am on an NCHRP panel that is supervising a project to quantify the benefits of various methodologies for statewide travel forecasting.\u00a0 That project is getting close to finishing, so I wanted to compare our consultant\u2019s findings to whatever may have come out of the recent NCHRP project to create the software tool, TFGuide web app.\u00a0 This piece of software is documented in NCHRP Report 852 and the software makes recommendations as to what a travel model should look like. \u00a0These two NCHRP projects struck me as being awfully ambitious, given the large number of factors, many of them subjective or political, that go into defining a travel forecasting model for an MPO or a state.<\/p>\n

Which reminds me of my own fits and starts to create the Tools Selection Matrix for NCHRP Report 765.<\/p>\n

The Tools Selection Matrix did not make it into the main body of NCHRP Report 765, but was relegated to an appendix.\u00a0 However, it was rescued for the Hawaii report and it now appears on TFResource.org, see http:\/\/tfresource.org\/Choice_of_techniques_in_project-level_traffic_forecasts<\/a>.\u00a0 This matrix automates the selection of project-level traffic forecasting techniques.<\/p>\n

A big problem with the Tools Selection Matrix was its flatness. There was no easy way to deal with the many dimensions of the selection process on a spreadsheet.\u00a0 If you were to peek at the matrix you would see its six principal input dimensions:\u00a0 applications; geography; forecast output requirements; time horizons; budget; and technical resources.\u00a0 The dimensions interact with each other in a myriad of ways, which could not be depicted on a plane.\u00a0 Although I struggled mightily to come up with a simple procedure to implement the matrix, its full potential could not be achieved without imparting a great deal of outside expertise.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the Matrix\u2019s most serious drawback it that it makes no concessions to budget, training, traditions, or software availability.\u00a0 That was intentional.\u00a0 If the Matrix recommends DTA but you are most comfortable doing time series, that\u2019s your problem.\u00a0 You cannot force the Matrix to justify your current methods if those methods are not ideal for the application.<\/p>\n

Which reminds me of the several peer reviews I have participated in, where I was just one of many experts at each.<\/p>\n

None of those peer reviews relied on anything special beyond our own knowledge and experience.\u00a0 No checklists, no spreadsheets, no expert system software.\u00a0 Agencies were asked to document their needs, constraints, and existing tools.\u00a0 We listened and we reacted.\u00a0 And we argued among ourselves a little.\u00a0 The number of recommendations were impressive in all cases, and those recommendations were far more than stock responses. \u00a0In the end, there was always general agreement about big-picture recommendations.\u00a0 Perhaps the peer-review panelists were chosen for compatibility beyond the nerdiness we all exhibited.\u00a0 We put our petty personal interests aside.<\/p>\n

Spokane was a good example.\u00a0 At the time, they had a decent regional travel model for long-range planning and conformity, but their forecasting methodology contained some quirky elements.\u00a0 They had a rather pressing need to improve their ability to assess traffic from site developments and new subdivisions, and these needs had not been previously addressed.\u00a0 They also wanted to improve their transit and bicycle planning capabilities.\u00a0 They had a tight budget for model development and a small staff. \u00a0See https:\/\/www.fhwa.dot.gov\/planning\/tmip\/resources\/peer_review_program\/srtc\/<\/a> for details.<\/p>\n

In just two hours of discussion we came up with a couple dozen recommendations.\u00a0 We told them what they should do and they should avoid.\u00a0 We tried to salvage as much of their existing methodology as we could, including retaining their current software platform so as to maintain continuity and to best utilize their training.\u00a0 However, we told them to implement parts of this software platform that had been ignored, especially to improve assignment and delay estimation.\u00a0 We wanted them to standardize their model on well-established and validated techniques.\u00a0 Go to Chapter 5 of the peer-review report and see for yourself the amount of detail we were able to provide.<\/p>\n

So I tried to input Spokane\u2019s situation into the TFGuide web app and I really couldn\u2019t get satisfying answers, as compared to the peer review.\u00a0 I did not have enough input flexibility and TFGuide\u2019s recommendations would not have been particularly helpful in solving Spokane\u2019s biggest issues.\u00a0 However, TFGuide\u2019s cost estimates seemed ballpark correct.\u00a0 There may be places where TFGuide would do fine.\u00a0 I did not see anything misleading in how TFGuide handled Spokane, but the recommendations were just not sufficiently surgical.<\/p>\n

I would give both TFGuide and my Tools Selecon Matrix an \u201cE\u201d for effort and an \u201cI\u201d for incomplete, but for different reasons.\u00a0 I have confidence in the peer-review process, but recognizing that it takes long lead times and a lot of volunteer and consultant help to pull one of these off.\u00a0 Perhaps it would be worthwhile for someone to go over all of the peer-reviews to date and determine whether there is a manageable superset of inputs and outputs.\u00a0 What do you think the next steps should be?<\/p>\n

For my part, I wouldn\u2019t mind hearing suggestions about how the Tools Selection Matrix could be improved for usability.<\/p>\n

Alan Horowitz, Whitefish Bay, February 5, 2018<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I am on an NCHRP panel that is supervising a project to quantify the benefits of various methodologies for statewide travel forecasting.\u00a0 That project is getting close to finishing, so I wanted to compare our consultant\u2019s findings to whatever may have come out of the recent NCHRP project to create the software tool, TFGuide web …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-project-level-forecasting","category-travel-modeling","anons"],"yoast_head":"\nPain and Anguish while Creating an Automated Tool that Recommends Travel Forecasting Methods - 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