{"id":452,"date":"2019-01-12T17:58:02","date_gmt":"2019-01-12T17:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/?p=452"},"modified":"2019-04-20T22:32:59","modified_gmt":"2019-04-20T22:32:59","slug":"who-really-killed-the-electric-car","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/12\/who-really-killed-the-electric-car\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Really Killed the Electric Car?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry\">\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2006 Hollywood gave us the movie, <em>Who Killed the Electric Car?<\/em>, which tried to paint General Motors\nas misguided or evil for repossessing and destroying almost the whole fleet of\nEV1s that it had manufactured.&nbsp; As you\nmight remember the EV1 was a short-lived experiment lasting from about the 1996\nto the 1999 model years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Actually, the electric vehicle, as a concept had many ups\nand downs before it was able to grab a tiny but stable market share in recent\nyears.&nbsp; There are papers in the\nliterature about EV deployment that concern me, because they assume rates of EV\nmarket penetration way beyond reason.&nbsp; I\nonce did some estimation of EV market share while at General Motors.&nbsp; So maybe it is worthwhile reviewing why EVs\nhave had so little success in the past so as to understand their future.&nbsp; But first\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I once killed an electric car!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, I did nothing so callous as to order the crushing of\nleased vehicles that were already in customers garages.&nbsp; However, in 1978 I wrote the internal GM\nreport that terminated all serious EV development in that company for many\nyears to come.&nbsp; If GM wasn\u2019t interested\nin pursuing EV development, you can bet nobody else was either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was nothing evil or conspiratorial in my report.&nbsp; I showed that EVs were largely incompatible\nwith travel choices, urban structure, and driver tastes.&nbsp; Some of those incompatibilities remain today,\nalthough much has changed due to lighter batteries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 1978 the only reliable battery technology was lead-acid.&nbsp; And if you have ever changed a battery in a\ncar or boat yourself, you know that lead-acid batteries are heavy.&nbsp; The first electric vehicle prototype I ever saw,\nincidentally in the lobby of GM Research Labs, weighed about 4000 lbs, and\nliterally half of this weight was battery pack.&nbsp;\nThere was almost no cargo space and the passenger compartment was\ncramped.&nbsp; Engineers envisioned the\nmaximum range for such a vehicle at 90 miles, pretty much the same as a standard\nEV1 20 years later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I will spare you the details of the estimation, but I based\na lot of the analysis on travel survey data and a proprietary GM survey of\nbuyer choices when shopping for smaller cars.&nbsp;\nI did not use travel choice modeling, and I made hardly any assumptions.&nbsp; Bottom line:&nbsp;\nThe whole US potential market consisted of 10,000 vehicles.&nbsp; I clearly remember to this day the reaction\nof Chevrolet\u2019s marketing director, \u201cWhy heeel, I kin sell 10,000 elephaants on\nroller skates.\u201d&nbsp; The room erupted in\nlaughter, but the point had been made.&nbsp;\nEVs would be a marketing disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apparently GM had forgotten my report.&nbsp; The EV1 was doomed from the day it was\nconceived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The availability of lithium-ion batteries has been a game\nchanger for EVs.&nbsp; Market share for\nelectric vehicles has now climbed to over 1%, about half of this being plug-in\nhybrids, but there are still problems.&nbsp;\nCosts are relatively high and government subsidies are phasing out.&nbsp; The still limited range, now at about 300\nmiles, coupled with slow charging rates inhibits intercity travel.&nbsp; The EVs are configured as smaller passenger\ncars, while the market for SUVs continues to grow.&nbsp; And while EVs have advantages in stemming\ngreenhouse gases, low prices for fossil fuels are encouraging people to stick\nwith the old, reliable internal combustion engine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I need to elaborate about the plug-in hybrid, which is a different\nbeast.&nbsp; The Prius Prime, for example, has\nan all-electric driving distance of 25 miles between recharges.&nbsp; While not at all impressive, this range is\nlikely OK for a substantial number of drivers on most days, and the ICE is\nthere for those longer trips and busier schedules.&nbsp; A plug-in hybrid is not dependent on remote\ncharging stations, and the duration of charging is made reasonable by the\nsmaller size of battery packs within these cars.&nbsp; Charging at the workplace would certainly be\nappreciated by drivers with longer commutes, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So it is not \u201cwho\u201d but \u201cwhat\u201d killed the EV1.&nbsp; The EV1 was badly mismatched to driving needs and buyer preferences.&nbsp; Even now, the market size for EVs is severely limited without substantial help from government through subsidies or regulation.&nbsp; Any person doing research or planning that involves EVs must make sure that their market-size assumptions and scenarios make sense in terms of good travel behavior principles.&nbsp; There is never justification for politically-motivated or sloppy guesswork.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Your opinion is always welcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Alan Horowitz, Whitefish Bay, January 12, 2019, edited slightly January 18, 2019<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In 2006 Hollywood gave us the movie, Who Killed the Electric Car?, which tried to paint General Motors as misguided or evil for repossessing and destroying almost the whole fleet of EV1s that it had manufactured.&nbsp; As you might remember the EV1 was a short-lived experiment lasting from about the 1996 to the 1999 model &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5,12,7,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-environmental-impacts","category-planning-theory","category-research-philosophy","category-scenario-development","anons"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with 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