{"id":535,"date":"2019-10-13T17:00:06","date_gmt":"2019-10-13T17:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/?p=535"},"modified":"2020-01-22T16:22:22","modified_gmt":"2020-01-22T16:22:22","slug":"cold-start-fuel-consumption-a-case-study-in-research-ethics-part-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/13\/cold-start-fuel-consumption-a-case-study-in-research-ethics-part-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Cold Start Fuel Consumption:  A Case Study in Research Ethics, Part 6"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry\">\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I underwent a period of intense harassment by Spreitzer and\nRothery.&nbsp; The obvious goal was to get me\nto quit, and it worked.&nbsp; I could do\nnothing right, according to my bosses, verbally or technically.&nbsp; All my previous research was dredged up and\ncriticized.&nbsp; Sadly, some of this\ncriticism bled over to other researchers.&nbsp;\nI was spending a disproportionate amount of time defending myself and my\ncolleagues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most of the criticism was highly subjective.&nbsp; For example, I was told my writing had too\nmuch jargon and too much mathematics.&nbsp;\nBut one key criticism revolved around an important technical point in an\nolder published paper.&nbsp; Rothery accused\nme of miscalculating speeds in a study I jointly did with a researcher from the\nold Traffic Science Department.&nbsp; That\npaper is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Man-Feng Chang and Alan J. Horowitz, \u201cEstimates of Fuel\nSavings Through Improved Traffic Flow in Seven U. S. Cities\u201d, <em>Traffic Engineering and Control<\/em>,\nVol. 20, No. 2, February 1979, pp. 62-66.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chang did all the traffic analysis, and I did all the urban\nanalysis.&nbsp; If there were wrong speeds, it\nwas Chang\u2019s doing.&nbsp; Except that I did not\nbelieve Chang could have miscalculated speeds.&nbsp;\nHe was just too good of a researcher.&nbsp;\nRothery said we used \u201ctime mean speed\u201d rather than the preferred \u201cspace\nmean speed\u201d.&nbsp; Don\u2019t worry if you don\u2019t\nknow the distinction between these two.&nbsp;\nI did not know about either of these speeds at the time.&nbsp; That\u2019s why I selected a traffic expert as my\nco-author.&nbsp; I did not have Chang\u2019s\noriginal calculations, but I did have Chang\u2019s data.&nbsp; I recalculated the speeds with Rothery\u2019s\nspace-mean speed formula and got the same speed numbers as Chang in every case\nto within three significant digits.&nbsp; The\nspeeds were correct for all practical purposes.&nbsp;\nRothery was not impressed.&nbsp; Chang\nwas slandered, and I received a big black mark on my record.&nbsp; It was not until I started teaching a traffic\nengineering class many years later that I realized why Chang was 100% correct\nall along.&nbsp; See the note below for the\ntechnical details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My health had deteriorated, I had accepted a job offer, and\nit was time to leave.&nbsp; I asked Spreitzer\nfor the dataset collected at great expense for the subjective value of time\nstudy.&nbsp; He said I could take it.&nbsp; There were two additional high-quality\npublications in that dataset, and it gave me a solid head start on my academic\ncareer. &nbsp;I was grateful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Department at GM soon withered and died.&nbsp; Its researchers scattered.&nbsp; Rothery retired early and followed Robert\nHerman to the University of Texas.&nbsp;\nTragically, Rothery died in an accident at a boat launch not long\nafterwards.&nbsp; Spreitzer remained at\nGM.&nbsp; He regained some prominence as GM\u2019s point-person\non intelligent transportation systems.&nbsp;\nHe died several days ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I once asked a group of Tau Beta Pi students whether they\nwould be willing to risk their job to do as I had done.&nbsp; They all said they would.&nbsp; Maybe, but I sincerely hope they never have\nto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My going away party was attended by virtually everyone in\nthe department, except Spreitzer.&nbsp; There\nwas joy for me and more than a small amount of jealously.&nbsp; I had survived GM and was moving on with my\nlife.&nbsp; Those remaining had no idea\nwhether they would be able to make a clean transition to a new career\npath.&nbsp; Vogler\u2019s card was given to me at\nthe party.&nbsp; For the last half of my\ntenure at UWM, I hung the card on my office wall where I could see it from my\ndesk.&nbsp; The card held a message for me and\nany of my students who asked &#8212; at one moment in my life I had the guts to\nfollow my convictions against seemingly insurmountable odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Occasionally, I have wondered why Rothery chose to slander\nChang over a simple speed calculation that Chang had correctly done.&nbsp; Rothery had the reputation of being a good\ntraffic theorist, so this blunder made no sense.&nbsp; The only plausible explanation I can surmise\nis Rothery was so blinded by the political imperative of pleasing Spreitzer\nthat all professional judgment was thrown away.&nbsp;\nWhich raises still another question, how can we trust any research carried\nout in an environment where prospects of political and personal gain outweigh\nthe quest for truth?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Alan Horowitz,\nWhitefish Bay, October 13, 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Technical note on Chang\u2019s speed calculation:<\/em>\u00a0 Chang\u2019s speed data came from a heavily instrumented automobile that had been driven around the city.\u00a0 This is precisely the same instrumentation used to create the speed profile underlying the original EPA urban driving fuel economy test.\u00a0 The instruments gave us the average speed calculated over exactly 1 second of time.\u00a0 To find the trip speed, Chang simply averaged all those one second speeds in the trip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The controversy between \u201cspace mean speed\u201d and \u201ctime mean\nspeed\u201d arises when finding the average speed from spot, instantaneous, speeds\nof many vehicles in a traffic stream.&nbsp;\nThe consensus of traffic experts is we should be using \u201cspace mean\nspeed\u201d, which can be approximated from the harmonic mean of all spot\nspeeds.&nbsp; \u201cTime mean speed\u201d, which is not correct,\nis found from the simple average of spot speeds.&nbsp; Chang\u2019s data were not spot speeds of many\nvehicles.&nbsp; They were speeds from a single\nvehicle at short, regular time intervals.&nbsp;\nThis distinction is critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The best way to explain Chang\u2019s logic is to give you a\nfamous riddle about a car being driven over a two mile course.&nbsp; The driver is testing a race car by traveling\n2 miles.&nbsp; For the first mile she drives\nat 30 mph.&nbsp; At what speed does she need\nto drive the second mile in order to average 60 miles per hour?&nbsp; The correct answer is that she cannot ever\naverage 60 mph, since she has used up her allotted 2 minutes of driving time in\nthe first mile.&nbsp; Most people will give\nthe wrong answer of 90 miles per hour.&nbsp;\nLet\u2019s work with this wrong answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The time mean speed, which we know to be wrong is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; S = (30 + 90)\/2 =\n60 mph<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The space mean speed, which we know to be correct is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;S = 2\/(1\/30 + 1\/90) = 45 mph<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chang\u2019s mean speed comes from averaging speeds by\nseconds.&nbsp; It takes exactly 120 seconds to\ntravel 1 mile at 30 mph and it takes exactly 40 seconds to travel 1 mile at 90\nmiles per hour.&nbsp; So the mean speed over\nthe 160 seconds for the whole trip is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;S = (120*30 + 40*90)\/160 = 45 mph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chang\u2019s method indeed gives us the same answer as space mean\nspeed, exactly and always.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I underwent a period of intense harassment by Spreitzer and Rothery.&nbsp; The obvious goal was to get me to quit, and it worked.&nbsp; I could do nothing right, according to my bosses, verbally or technically.&nbsp; All my previous research was dredged up and criticized.&nbsp; Sadly, some of this criticism bled over to other researchers.&nbsp; I &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-research-philosophy","anons"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cold 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