{"id":634,"date":"2020-10-18T13:44:10","date_gmt":"2020-10-18T13:44:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/?p=634"},"modified":"2020-10-18T13:44:13","modified_gmt":"2020-10-18T13:44:13","slug":"how-i-bought-my-house-in-whitefish-bay-a-story-about-a-land-use-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/18\/how-i-bought-my-house-in-whitefish-bay-a-story-about-a-land-use-model\/","title":{"rendered":"How I Bought My House in Whitefish Bay (a Story About a Land-Use Model)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry\">\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I must digress.\u00a0 The first house Shirley and I bought was in the Detroit area.\u00a0 After looking at\u00a0several gorgeous, ridiculously cheap,\u00a0mansions in the City of\u00a0Detroit, we decided to look for more modest digs in the suburbs.\u00a0 We wanted to identify the\u00a0\u201cgood\u201d\u00a0neighborhoods\u00a0near\u00a0the GM Tech Center, so\u00a0on a map\u00a0I\u00a0shaded 2-mile radius circles around every K-Mart.\u00a0\u00a0The closest hole in the shading was the eastern\u00a0half\u00a0of Lathrup Village, a\u00a0small\u00a0municipality completely surrounded by the City of Southfield.\u00a0 Lathrup Village, known for its exclusionary deed restrictions, had one\u00a0house on the market suitable for a budding GM executive.\u00a0 We bought it, becoming\u00a0some of the first residents of Lathrup Village\u00a0who were not from northern European stock.\u00a0 We lived on Sunset\u00a0Drive,\u00a0several doors down from\u00a0Gordie Howe\u2019s house.\u00a0\u00a0As long as we kept our ample lawn\u00a0mowed, nobody much cared where our grandparents were born.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our move to Wisconsin was sudden, and we had almost no time for house hunting. I had been to&nbsp;the&nbsp;Milwaukee&nbsp;area&nbsp;only once&nbsp;before (see&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/22\/the-elusive-concept-of-delay-in-urban-traffic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2020\/01\/22\/the-elusive-concept-of-delay-in-urban-traffic\/<\/a>).&nbsp;&nbsp;I did not have much time for research, but I did have a large stack of results from a&nbsp;land-use model of&nbsp;the Milwaukee area.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There&nbsp;is&nbsp;little apparent rationale for my possessing a land-use model of Milwaukee&nbsp;while living in Detroit.&nbsp; Perhaps it was David Boyce, an occasional consultant to GM, who convinced&nbsp;them to build such a model.&nbsp; GM was interested in the urban impacts of&nbsp;tiny&nbsp;cars,&nbsp;a land-use model seemed to be a good means of investigation, and we were sitting on a treasure trove of SEWRPC&nbsp;(Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission)&nbsp;data:&nbsp;&nbsp;the latest highway network,&nbsp;zonal demographic information, \u2026,&nbsp;the works.&nbsp; SEWRPC gave GM these&nbsp;data, once&nbsp;GM&nbsp;promised&nbsp;never to disclose any of it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I wrote the code, calibrated the model as best as needed for GM purposes, and then ran myriads of future scenarios, with and without tiny cars.&nbsp;The model was unconstrained as to housing supply, so it could not be used for short-range analysis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most obvious findings was that without any new&nbsp;influences&nbsp;to slow things down, the Milwaukee area would&nbsp;undergo decades of suburbanization due to freeways.&nbsp; Of course, our interest in tiny cars led us to consider scenarios with high fuel prices.&nbsp; One of these scenarios guided my house-hunting decisions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I believed in an inevitable rise in fuel prices, so I\u00a0focused\u00a0on\u00a0those\u00a0particular\u00a0scenarios.\u00a0 Among the housing markets seeming to do best was Whitefish Bay.\u00a0 Putting\u00a0all\u00a0our money where my mouth was, we bought there.\u00a0 Today, Whitefish Bay\u00a0does not have\u00a0anywhere near\u00a0the\u00a0highest\u00a0average\u00a0home\u00a0prices\u00a0in the region, but it is the place where you get the least house for your investment.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I must digress again. Detroit was hollowed-out by the&nbsp;impact of freeways.&nbsp; Maybe&nbsp;some of&nbsp;the early rush to&nbsp;the&nbsp;suburbs can be attributed to the riot of 1967, but the&nbsp;extreme&nbsp;decentralization cannot be explained by&nbsp;racial issues alone.&nbsp;&nbsp;Consider that the population of the Detroit metropolitan&nbsp;area is almost exactly the same today as it was in 1960&nbsp;(about 3.5 million&nbsp;people), but the City of Detroit&nbsp;has declined in population from&nbsp;1,670,000 people to 670,000&nbsp;people.&nbsp; The rate of decline has been slowing lately, perhaps indicating suburbanization&nbsp;trends are&nbsp;finally playing&nbsp;themselves&nbsp;out.&nbsp;&nbsp;The beginning of the decline in&nbsp;the&nbsp;City of Detroit population actually predated the riot by several years.&nbsp;&nbsp;When I was just a lad, I set up a residential location model for the Detroit metropolitan area.&nbsp; The pattern of change was predicted well by the model&nbsp;at the time, and as I can best recall, the&nbsp;predicted&nbsp;pattern of change has&nbsp;roughly&nbsp;continued through subsequent decades.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;I have often asked the rhetorical question to students and colleagues, if I can build a&nbsp;well-functioning land-use model&nbsp;from scratch&nbsp;for the Milwaukee region in&nbsp;just a couple months using SEWRPC\u2019s&nbsp;data, why couldn\u2019t SEWRPC do it also&nbsp;in&nbsp;say&nbsp;2 years or 20 years?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Alan Horowitz, Whitefish Bay, October 18, 2020<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I must digress.\u00a0 The first house Shirley and I bought was in the Detroit area.\u00a0 After looking at\u00a0several gorgeous, ridiculously cheap,\u00a0mansions in the City of\u00a0Detroit, we decided to look for more modest digs in the suburbs.\u00a0 We wanted to identify the\u00a0\u201cgood\u201d\u00a0neighborhoods\u00a0near\u00a0the GM Tech Center, so\u00a0on a map\u00a0I\u00a0shaded 2-mile radius circles around every K-Mart.\u00a0\u00a0The closest hole &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5,12,13,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-environmental-impacts","category-planning-theory","category-scenario-development","category-travel-modeling","anons"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - 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