{"id":638,"date":"2020-10-23T15:57:43","date_gmt":"2020-10-23T15:57:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/?p=638"},"modified":"2020-10-29T15:38:04","modified_gmt":"2020-10-29T15:38:04","slug":"shielding-and-weaponizing-your-travel-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ajhassoc.com\/index.php\/2020\/10\/23\/shielding-and-weaponizing-your-travel-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Shielding and Weaponizing Your Travel Model"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry\">\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Excerpt from \u201cThe Planners Guide to Advocacy Modeling\u201d by Alan Horowitz<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Chapter 12.&nbsp;&nbsp;Shielding and&nbsp;Weaponizing Your Travel Model&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier chapters of this book describe methods of building and calibrating a travel model to assure that&nbsp;it produces the desired policy outputs.&nbsp; However,&nbsp;a model&nbsp;will not&nbsp;be particularly useful in advancing a political agenda unless certain steps are taken to protect the model&nbsp;from criticism&nbsp;and to maintain exclusivity.&nbsp; Doing these things&nbsp;is&nbsp;difficult in a public environment.&nbsp; This chapter details&nbsp;all&nbsp;steps to be taken to assure your model is properly&nbsp;shielded and&nbsp;weaponized.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Building&nbsp;Model Credibility&nbsp;through&nbsp;Big Documents and Public Forums&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier chapters of this book show how model insensitivity to certain policies can work to the agency\u2019s advantage.&nbsp;&nbsp;Admit to no deficiencies.&nbsp;&nbsp;Your model is always state-of-the-practice.&nbsp;&nbsp;An unwanted enhancement is unproven research.&nbsp;&nbsp;Cite&nbsp;other models around the country that do it the same way (there are always some).&nbsp;&nbsp;Tout the model as the best way to analyze all transportation plans.&nbsp;&nbsp;Publish&nbsp;very large reports with lots of nifty, preferably irrelevant,&nbsp;graphics&nbsp;and lots of mathematics&nbsp;to show how much thought has gone into the modeling effort.&nbsp; Be indignant&nbsp;when&nbsp;anybody suggests&nbsp;the model could be improved.&nbsp; Discredit any attempts by interest groups to challenge transportation plans by&nbsp;pointing&nbsp;out their&nbsp;lack&nbsp;of&nbsp;expertise or&nbsp;their&nbsp;lack&nbsp;of&nbsp;any evidence from&nbsp;their own&nbsp;travel model.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Managing Outside Expertise&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The importance of mitigating bothersome experts cannot be overstressed.&nbsp;&nbsp;Many large urban areas have university&nbsp;faculty&nbsp;with travel forecasting expertise.&nbsp;Many of these people can be&nbsp;easily&nbsp;discredited if travel forecasting is not their principal&nbsp;teaching&nbsp;or research&nbsp;specialty.&nbsp;&nbsp;Experts at consulting firms can be neutralized by&nbsp;a&nbsp;mere hint of distain.&nbsp;&nbsp;Under no circumstance should a modeling expert be invited to join a technical committee or attend a public participation event.&nbsp; Intimidation&nbsp;and defamation&nbsp;have&nbsp;little&nbsp;long-term&nbsp;value&nbsp;and may help&nbsp;to&nbsp;build opposing coalitions.&nbsp;&nbsp;Honoring or otherwise ingratiating yourself with the expert may buy some time, but it may not provide long-term benefits.  So as not to appear biased, standing policies that&nbsp;broadly&nbsp;marginalize all experts are better than ad hoc policies&nbsp;that&nbsp;target&nbsp;one&nbsp;particularly&nbsp;troublesome&nbsp;expert.&nbsp; State DOTs have modeling experts, but&nbsp;they can be neutralized by interagency agreements to stay away from each other\u2019s territory.&nbsp; Participating in the development of a state-wide model might encourage DOT staff to look closely at your&nbsp;local model, so such participation should be&nbsp;minimized.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Controlling the Peer Review Process&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solicited, as well as unsolicited,&nbsp;criticism by experts is to be avoided,&nbsp;including&nbsp;any peer reviews.&nbsp;Peer reviews of travel models are most often conducted by the&nbsp;Travel Model Improvement Program of FHWA and FTA.&nbsp;&nbsp;TMIP chooses unbiased reviewers with considerable expertise,&nbsp;with the&nbsp;peer review managed and documented by a third-party contractor to TMIP.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Peer reviews are open forums, often providing an opportunity for&nbsp;public discourse.&nbsp; Peer reviews, by nature, are difficult to control and may produce suggested improvements that run counter to agency objectives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most important principles of peer review are the three D\u2019s:&nbsp;deny,&nbsp;delay,&nbsp;and&nbsp;deflect.&nbsp; There is no advantage to&nbsp;having&nbsp;a peer review for a model designed to advocate for a specific&nbsp;planning&nbsp;outcome, beyond public validation of what already exists.&nbsp;&nbsp;Therefore,&nbsp;the need for a&nbsp;peer review should be&nbsp;<em>denied<\/em>, if possible.&nbsp; However, political pressure might&nbsp;force&nbsp;your&nbsp;agency to&nbsp;give an impression&nbsp;it is making a sincere effort at a&nbsp;review.&nbsp; In&nbsp;those cases, it is necessary to&nbsp;control the substance and flow of information.&nbsp; The&nbsp;least option&nbsp;is to&nbsp;<em>delay<\/em>&nbsp;any&nbsp;external&nbsp;review by doing an internal audit of the model.&nbsp; To help make the internal audit&nbsp;seem&nbsp;credible, your model&nbsp;could, for instance,&nbsp;be compared with&nbsp;a few models at similar agencies.&nbsp; Proper selection of&nbsp;those other agencies\/models is essential to the successful conclusion of the&nbsp;internal&nbsp;review.&nbsp; Should an internal review not satisfy critics, then there might be a need to bring in outside experts.&nbsp; Do not use TMIP\u2019s services, which are problematically unbiased.&nbsp; Identify a few modelers from similar agencies&nbsp;as&nbsp;yours to participate.&nbsp; Do not bring in anybody from academia.&nbsp; The location of the review&nbsp;should be at a remote location, preferably outside the boundaries of&nbsp;the&nbsp;MPO and even more preferably outside your state.&nbsp; Such a location will discourage attendance from representatives of special interest groups, who might want to avail themselves of any \u201copen meeting\u201d requirements.&nbsp; These actions should be sufficient to&nbsp;<em>deflect<\/em>&nbsp;criticism of the absence of a&nbsp;TMIP-style&nbsp;peer review.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Protecting the Model from&nbsp;Prying&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The travel model, including all input data, plus survey data should be treated as proprietary.\u00a0Technical assistance for a fee may be provided to special interest groups\u00a0and outside agencies\u00a0in lieu of giving them\u00a0access to the model.\u00a0 Preference should be given to a very expensive,\u00a0modeling platform, so as to discourage special interest groups from buying their own modeling capability.\u00a0\u00a0To avoid leaks, all model development must be done in-house.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Preventing Access to Data&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Never share data with anyone, not even the state DOT.&nbsp;&nbsp;Even though all such data were&nbsp;collected at public expense and subject to open-records laws, it is important to deny access to these data.&nbsp; However, you should be willing to provide data summaries, to anyone who wishes to reimburse your agency for its time and trouble, since summaries are unlikely to be helpful in countering findings from your travel model.&nbsp; You should be ready with excuses for not providing&nbsp;raw&nbsp;data, such as \u201cthe data have not been verified\u201d or \u201cthere are privacy concerns\u201d.&nbsp;&nbsp;You may be permitted to charge a processing fee for fulfilling open records requests.&nbsp; Since most special interest groups have tight budgets, it usually&nbsp;takes only a slightly exorbitant fee to discourage&nbsp;further&nbsp;inquiries.&nbsp; Threats of a lawsuit are unlikely to&nbsp;materialize, since legal budgets of special interest groups are also&nbsp;meager.&nbsp;&nbsp;Universities&nbsp;and outside public agencies avoid lawsuits, as a rule.&nbsp;&nbsp;Stonewalling is best accomplished with professionalism and politeness.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Conclusion&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shielding and weaponizing a travel model require a multifaceted and consistent strategy, applied over a long period of time.&nbsp; Even&nbsp;the smallest breach in this effort can cause your model to&nbsp;lose credibility, thereby undermining its ability to&nbsp;advance&nbsp;political objectives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[Author&#8217;s note:&nbsp;&nbsp;This article is satire.&nbsp; I am not advocating&nbsp;doing&nbsp;any of this.&nbsp;&nbsp;However, everything in this article is based&nbsp;on actual events&nbsp;I have observed over my career.  <em>Alan Horowitz, Whitefish Bay, October 23, 2020<\/em>]&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Excerpt from \u201cThe Planners Guide to Advocacy Modeling\u201d by Alan Horowitz Chapter 12.&nbsp;&nbsp;Shielding and&nbsp;Weaponizing Your Travel Model&nbsp; Earlier chapters of this book describe methods of building and calibrating a travel model to assure that&nbsp;it produces the desired policy outputs.&nbsp; However,&nbsp;a model&nbsp;will not&nbsp;be particularly useful in advancing a political agenda unless certain steps are taken to &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[11,12,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-data","category-planning-theory","category-travel-modeling","anons"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - 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